~7.6% of ~5,000 manufactured HS6 categories traded globally
2024 · Source: ITC TradeMap
📈 Progress to Tenfold Growth
Each indicator tracked against its current value, NDP IV target (FY2029/30), and Tenfold Growth target (2040). Bar represents journey from zero to Tenfold target.
On NDP IV targets: #1 (20% of GDP by FY2029/30) is the published NDP IV Manufacturing Programme target (National Planning Authority, NDP IV, Chapter 11 "Manufacturing", §11.4 Programme Results, 2024 — baseline stated there as 16% of GDP in FY2023/24; this dashboard uses UBOS's more recent FY2024/25 actual of 14.5% as the current value instead of NDP IV's own baseline). #3's NDP IV figure (13.5%) is also from that same chapter ("value of exports of manufactured products," FY2023/24 baseline 10.6%) — flagged because a separate section of the same NDP IV document independently cites manufactured goods at 21.4% of total 2023 exports, so the exact basis of the 13.5% target isn't fully unambiguous. #4's current value (2.3%) is also NDP IV's own stated figure. Targets for #2, #5, #6, #7, #8 and #9 (manufacturing's share of tax, credit, industrial parks, FDI, employment and export variety) do not appear anywhere in the NDP IV document; they remain this project's indicative estimates, not official figures, pending MTIC/NPA confirmation.
Figure view changes Manufacturing Value Added (#1) — the one indicator where the denominator (Uganda's GDP) itself grows roughly 10× by the Tenfold horizon, so % progress and $ progress tell different stories. Bars #2–9 don't yet have confirmed absolute NDP IV/Tenfold targets for their own totals (total tax revenue, total exports, etc.), so they show the same percentage progress in both views until those figures are confirmed.
1. Manufacturing Value Added (% of GDP)USD 8.1B / 14.5% → NDP IV USD 31.6B / 20% → Tenfold USD 150.0B / 30%
USD 8.1B / 14.5%
→ USD 31.6B / 20%
→ USD 150.0B / 30% Tenfold
2. Manufacturing Tax Contribution (% of total tax)USD 1.9B / 34% → NDP IV 35% → Tenfold 40%
USD 1.9B / 34%
→ 35%
→ 40% Tenfold
3. Manufactured Exports (% of total exports)USD 2.4B / 12% → NDP IV 13.5% → Tenfold 50%
USD 2.4B / 12%
→ 13.5%
→ 50% Tenfold
4. High-Tech Exports (% of manufactured exports)USD 85M / 2.3% → NDP IV 8% → Tenfold 15%
USD 85M / 2.3%
→ 8%
→ 15% Tenfold
5. Private Sector Credit to Manufacturing (% of total credit)USD 900M / 3.4% → NDP IV 12% → Tenfold 20%
USD 900M / 3.4%
→ 12%
→ 20% Tenfold
6. Establishments in Industrial Parks (% of total)166 / 2.4% → NDP IV 5% → Tenfold 15%
166 / 2.4%
→ 5%
→ 15% Tenfold
7. FDI to Manufacturing (% of total FDI)USD 180M / 5.5% → NDP IV 20% → Tenfold 30%
USD 180M / 5.5%
→ 20%
→ 30% Tenfold
8. Manufacturing Employment (% of total employment)~712,000 / 3.2% → NDP IV 12% → Tenfold 20%
~712,000 / 3.2%
→ 12%
→ 20% Tenfold
9. Variety of Manufactured Exports (% of global HS6 categories)~380 / 7.6% → NDP IV 600 / 12% → Tenfold 1,000 / 20%
~380 / 7.6%
→ 600 / 12%
→ 1,000 / 20% Tenfold
Current (FY2024/25)NDP IV Target (FY2029/30)Tenfold Growth Target (2040)
🗺️ Manufacturing Industry Distribution
~7,011 registered manufacturing establishments · MTIC National Industries Register (Aug 2025) · click a cell to drill in
Spatial Distribution by region, then by district
Sector Distribution by sector (2-digit ISIC), then by sub-sector (4-digit ISIC)
📊 Value Chain Status & 2040 Projections
Current state of each value chain in Uganda, binding constraints, prioritised products, and tenfold-growth projections to 2040.
🕓 Recently Updated
Latest data, chapters, and reviews from the agentic pipeline — newest first.
🛠️FixComplete rewrite - pure React with zero dependencies2026-08-04
🛠️FixReplace lucide-react with emoji icons to avoid dependency issues2026-08-04
🚀Featureadd Minister data collection stubs — 4 priority value chains2026-08-03
📈 Momentum — FY20/21 → FY24/25
Four-year actual change, separate from the 2040 targets above — this answers "is Uganda's industrial base actually moving," not just "how far is left to go."
Growth Rates ● Official figure
Both rose +3.4 pts — industrial growth is accelerating faster than the wider economy.
Mfg Value Added, real Shs trn ● Official figure
+18.4% over 4 years — rising every single year, not just a one-off jump.
Share of GDP, current prices ● Official figure
Share of GDP fell even as real output grew — other sectors (services) are growing faster, not that industry shrank.
Manufactured Exports, USD bn ≈ Estimated
+118% — exports more than doubled in four years.
Tax Contribution by Sector, FY24/25 ● Official figure
Wholesale & Retail39%
Manufacturing34%
Financial & Insurance15%
Info & Communications9%
Public Administration5%
Manufacturing holds the #2 line directly, behind Wholesale & Retail (which is largely VAT on manufactured goods).
Electricity Consumed by Customer Class, FY24/25 ● Official figure
Industrial customers65%
Non-industrial35%
Up from ~60% industrial share in FY20/21 — industrial demand is absorbing a growing share of the grid.
Private-Sector Credit by Sector, FY24/25 · Bank of Uganda
Building & Real Estate
Shs 3.8trn → 5.0trn
Trade
Shs 2.9trn → 4.3trn
Personal & Household
Shs 3.5trn → 4.6trn
Manufacturing
Shs 2.3trn → 3.4trn
Agriculture
Shs 2.1trn → 2.7trn
Bars show FY24/25 stock; labels show FY20/21 → FY24/25 growth. Manufacturing credit grew faster (+48%) than the sector average.
🏭 The 9 Priority Value Chains — Snapshot
Value Chain
Key Import (2024)
Key Export (2024)
Uganda Position
Top 2040 Target
Priority
Iron & Steel
USD 219.5m flat steel
USD 55.8m rebar
Downstream only
5.5–8 Mtpa demand; domestic flat steel
R1 — Minerals
Copper & Allied Metals
USD 57.7m cable
Negligible
Cable mfg; mine dormant
USD 300–500m cable market; Kilembe revival
R1 — Minerals
Automotive
USD 298.4m vehicles
Negligible
KMC plant opened Sept 2025
KMC 10,000 veh/yr; e-boda assembly
R1 — Minerals
Textiles & Garments
~USD 6.7m garments
USD 11.3m raw cotton
Raw cotton exporter; mills limited
Process 50%+ of lint domestically
R2 — Agro/Light
Pharmaceuticals
USD 263.4m medicines
Small (QCIL regional)
6 WHO-GMP plants; QCIL flagship
USD 0.9–1.2B market; cut import to <50%
R2 — Agro/Light
Petrochemicals & Fertilizers
USD 32.1m fertiliser
—
Refinery pre-2029; Sukulu stalled
1.5–2m tonnes fertiliser demand by 2040
R2 — Agro/Light
Sugar & Confectionery
USD 38.1m industrial sugar
Regional brown sugar
Surplus producer; export ready
Industrial sugar, ethanol, co-gen
R2 — Agro/Light
Plastics & Packaging
USD 37.1m packaging
—
Converters active; resin all imported
Circular plastics + domestic resin (Kabalega)
R2 — Agro/Light
Cement & Building Materials
USD 162.2m clinker
USD 86.0m cement
Exporter; clinker gap closing
Several USD Bn/yr market; regional leader
R2 — Agro/Light
🔗 How The 9 Chains Form One Integrated Industrial System
Minerals → Manufacturing: Iron ore & steel feed Automotive (KMC bus frames ~37,300 t); copper wiring harnesses feed KMC EVs; cobalt feeds EV batteries
Green advantage: Uganda's hydro grid enables low-carbon steel (scrap-EAF), green ammonia fertiliser, and low-carbon EV buses — a genuine export differentiator
⚠️ Risk Register
Key risks to the Tenfold Growth Strategy, with mitigation and institutional owner. Severity/likelihood are analyst judgement (UNIDO PCP diagnostic), not sourced figures.
Risk
Severity
Likelihood
Mitigation
Owner
FX volatility raises cost of imported machinery and inputs
Macroeconomic
High
Medium
Phase capital imports; hedge where feasible; prioritise chains with high local input share
MoFPED / BoU
Grid reliability and access constrain new industrial capacity
Infrastructure
High
Medium
Accelerate industrial-zone grid connections; co-generation (bagasse) and captive power options
MEMD / UEDCL
Refinery and petrochemical park delays push back Plastics & Petrochemicals targets
Infrastructure
High
Medium
Maintain interim import-substitution incentives; phase plastics targets to refinery timeline
MEMD / Ministry of Energy
Skills gap in technical/engineering roles limits absorption of new industrial capacity
Human Capital
Medium
High
Expand TVET partnerships with anchor investors (KMC, QCIL); sector-specific apprenticeships
MTIC / MoES
Access to affordable long-term industrial financing remains limited
Financial
High
High
Blended finance facilities; partial credit guarantees for priority value chains
UDB / BoU
Land acquisition and titling delays slow industrial park development
Land & Regulatory
Medium
Medium
Fast-track industrial park land titling; dedicated MTIC land desk
MTIC / Ministry of Lands
Raw material import dependency (resin, API, flat steel) exposes chains to global price shocks
Supply Chain
Medium
High
Prioritise upstream investment in highest-exposure chains (steel, plastics, pharma)
MTIC
Regional competition (Kenya, Ethiopia, Vietnam) for the same FDI pool
Capacity utilisation stagnation if demand-side absorption (local + regional) underperforms
Market
Medium
Medium
Strengthen EAC market access; public procurement preference for domestic manufactures
MTIC / EAC Secretariat
🛣️ Investment & Milestone Roadmap
Committed projects and policy horizons plotted chronologically — what happens when, on the way to 2040. Compiled from internal data and current public reporting; verify before citing externally.
Sept 2025 · Automotive
KMC Bus & EV Plant operational
CompleteManufacturing
Output 2,500 vehicles/yr today; target 10,000+/yr by 2040 plus regional EV-bus supply
3 Mar 2025 · Copper & Allied Metals
Kilembe Copper-Cobalt PSA signed
In ProgressMinerals
Sarrai Group + Nile Fibreboard signed the production sharing agreement; mine still dormant pending development capital
Shs130bn (~USD 36.6m) plant built with India's Praj Industries; 20 million litres/year fuel-grade ethanol from molasses — feeds the national E5 blending mandate
2025 · Cement & Building Materials
Buikwe clinker plant (West International Holding)
In ProgressManufacturing
USD 200m investment; ~4,000 tonnes/day capacity — part of closing the clinker self-sufficiency gap from <50% toward >90%
Q4 2025 · Petrochemicals & Fertilizers
Kabalega Industrial Park substation & airport
In ProgressInfrastructure
240MW substation under construction; Kabalega International Airport ~95% complete. UNOC has attracted 31 investors across petrochemicals, logistics and agro-processing
~2025 · Pharmaceuticals
Pharma starch plant commissioned
CompleteManufacturing
USD 50m plant for excipient self-reliance, reducing import dependence on raw materials for medicine manufacturing — complements UPMI's new pharma plant pipeline
2025 · Textiles & Garments
Lira Spinning Mill revival proposed
Proposed (unconfirmed)Manufacturing
Lango MPs and President Museveni have called for reviving Africa's former 2nd-largest yarn mill (historical USD 24m + USD 13m Chinese investment); no confirmed new funding as of 2026
2025 · Petrochemicals & Fertilizers
Sukulu Phosphate Plant stalled
StalledMinerals
Guangzhou Dongsong's 100,000 tpa Tororo plant shut 2021, briefly resumed 2023, halted again — the single biggest risk to the 1.5-2m tonne fertiliser demand target
2025-26 · Cement & Building Materials
NE Uganda clinker plant under construction
In ProgressManufacturing
USD 300m investment; >6,000 tonnes/day — Uganda's largest single clinker investment to date
end 2027 · Iron & Steel
Devki Tororo Steel Mill production start
In ProgressManufacturing
USD 500m blast-furnace mill; groundbreaking 23 Nov 2025 attended by Presidents Museveni, Ruto and Kagame; 1 million tonnes/year, ~15,000 direct jobs — Uganda's first domestic flat/long steel production at scale
~2029-30 · Petrochemicals & Fertilizers
Kabaale Refinery first oil
PlannedInfrastructure
Enables domestic fuel and polymer feedstock — unlocks the Plastics & Packaging chain
FY2029/30 · All chains
NDP IV target horizon
Policy MilestonePolicy
Manufacturing share of GDP target 21%; capacity utilisation target 60%
~2031 · Plastics & Packaging
Kabalega Petrochemical Park polymer resin operational
PlannedInfrastructure
Domestic polymer resin ends 100% import dependency on plastics feedstock — park targets USD 5bn/year in throughput
2040 · All chains
Tenfold Growth target horizon
Policy MilestonePolicy
Manufacturing share of GDP target 30%; GDP ~USD 500B; capacity utilisation 80%
UBOS Annual GDP estimates (constant 2016/17 prices), national accounts
Bank of Uganda External trade statistics, private-sector credit by sector
URA Sector & revenue reports, tax contribution by sector
ERA Electricity Regulatory Authority — energy sold by customer class
ITC TradeMap HS-code level import/export figures, used throughout chain status pages
UNIDO PCP Diagnostics Capacity utilisation, firm-level interviews, field visit observations
● Official figure Published by the named institution for the stated period≈ Estimated Calculated or derived — based on partial data, ratios, or sector interviews○ Approximate Order-of-magnitude only — gives a sense of scale, not a precise number
Last verified: June 2026. Hover any confidence badge for its specific source. No FY24/25 manufacturing employment survey currently exists nationally — flagged as a data gap.
📍 Uganda Industry Locations
All active and under-construction manufacturing facilities across the 9 priority value chains. Click a chain in the sidebar to filter the map.
Value Chains Legend
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Diagnostic Chapter
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📖 Glossary & Abbreviations
API
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient — the core chemical compound in a medicine
ATMs
Agriculture
Bagasse
The fibrous residue left after extracting juice from sugarcane — used as a fuel for co-generation
BoU
Bank of Uganda — the central bank; source of trade and private-sector credit statistics
Capacity Utilisation
The share of installed industrial capacity actually being used in production
Downstream
Closer to the final consumer product in a value chain (e.g. rebar fabrication from imported steel)
EAC
East African Community — the regional trade bloc Uganda belongs to
EAF
Electric Arc Furnace — a low-carbon steelmaking process well-suited to Uganda's hydro-powered grid
ERA
Electricity Regulatory Authority — source of electricity consumption/sales data
HS Code
Harmonized System code — the international standard used to classify traded goods (used throughout TradeMap figures)
Import Substitution
Replacing imported goods with domestically manufactured equivalents
